Chapter 1068: Chapter 77: East Africa Moves North

At the current stage, there are only three great powers in the Indian Ocean region: the United Kingdom, East Africa, and the half-alive Ottoman Empire. Although the United Kingdom holds a dominant position in the Indian Ocean, the UK is nevertheless quite distant from the Indian Ocean.

Moreover, the British-controlled Suez Canal or Cape of Good Hope, key points of communication in the Indian Ocean, are not very secure and are susceptible to various threats.

If Tsarist Russia were to expand its territory to the Indian Ocean coast, it would be a completely different story. Unlike the UK, Tsarist Russia could potentially localize the newly occupied areas, posing a significant threat to East Africa if it becomes an Indian Ocean power.

East Africa also prefers that no competitive nation emerges around the Indian Ocean. Though the UK has a considerable influence in the Indian Ocean, it consists of colonies and semi-colonies, which can be dismantled through various means.

Take India as an example; East Africa could entirely support anti-British forces within India to constantly trouble the UK, although it currently sees no need to do so.

However, Russia is different. Its colonial methods differ from the UK, as evidenced in the Far East region, where Russia can establish stable local governments instead of indirect colonial rule.

Ernst continued, "Of course, our intervention in the Persian Gulf region would inevitably infringe on British interests, but this is unavoidable. Therefore, competition with the UK needs to be flexible and adaptable." 𝓯𝙧𝙚𝒆𝙬𝙚𝒃𝙣𝙤𝒗𝓮𝓵.𝙘𝙤𝙢

East Africa cannot bypass the UK when intervening in the Middle East and Central Asia, mainly because Britain’s voraciousness is unsightly. In Africa, while East Africa expanded its territory on the continent, the UK weaved an extensive and complex network of influence in the Middle East and Central Asia.

This network is predominantly distributed along the Indian Ocean coast, starting from Egypt in the east, including British Somaliland, Yemen, Oman, the Pirate Coast (UAE), Qatar, Bahrain, and eventually reaching India (including Pakistan).

The UK also wields significant influence in the Ottoman Empire and Persia, placing almost the entire northern shore of the Indian Ocean within its sphere of influence. Therefore, East Africa inevitably has to snatch resources from the British to break through.

"Hence, we should start with Persia and the Ottoman Empire, at least giving both nations the courage to resist Britain and Tsarist Russia. By providing military assistance to Persia and the Ottoman Empire, these countries could become the key to breaking the deadlock in the Middle East and Central Asia."

As long as the traditional Arab states of Persia and the Ottoman Empire are not easily manipulated by Britain and Russia, their strategies can never succeed. Supporting these two nations might adversely affect East Africa, but that possibility cannot be ignored.

If the Ottoman Empire unexpectedly revived, it would indeed significantly impact the world order. However, East Africa does not currently concern itself with this, as it is already at a disadvantage in the Middle East and Central Asia competition.

Should the Ottoman Empire revive, it may not be entirely negative for East Africa, though Tsarist Russia and European nations would have greater cause for concern.

Moreover, the likelihood of the Ottoman Empire’s revival is extremely low, mainly due to resource constraints. Industrial development requires water and population. Without oil to amass wealth, Arab countries generally struggle with poverty and population growth, as even food is a pressing issue. In the past, Arab countries could rely on oil trade to import food and engage in desalination for rapid population growth, but this is currently unlikely.

Take the former Saudi Arabia, for example. Without oil resources to rely on, Saudi Arabia’s population should never have reached nearly forty million. In fact, when Saudi Arabia gained independence, its population was just over four million. In Ernst’s view, without oil, this was already Saudi Arabia’s limit.

Despite using oil to acquire advanced agricultural equipment and develop desert agriculture, Saudi Arabia’s grain self-sufficiency rate barely reached twenty percent. Without oil, the cost of desert agriculture would be unsustainable for Saudi Arabia, as its agriculture was effectively sustained by substantial financial investment.

...

December 1907.

With East Africa’s decision to act, the first responders were East Africa’s diplomatic departments, as diplomatic relations had long been established in the Arabian sect countries, particularly in the Middle East and Central Asia.

Persia, the Ottoman Empire, and Oman had relatively frequent diplomatic and trade exchanges with East Africa.

East Africa dispatched three diplomatic missions, heading to the relatively opposing countries of Oman, Persia, and the Ottoman Empire. Apart from these three, other countries and regions largely heeded Tsarist or British directives, hesitating to defy them.

The arrival of East African diplomatic delegations was warmly welcomed by Persia and the Ottoman Empire. Oman, however, was somewhat hesitant, with a divided government and complex internal affairs. The British strength was notably significant, though Oman, once a great power of the Indian Ocean, also possessed substantial anti-British sentiment, especially among traditional Arabian sect figures. This internal division had previously led to Oman’s division into two states around 1913.

Thus, East Africa viewed some factions in Oman as worth courting. With the return of the Zanzibar people, they formed a substantial political group within Oman, naturally aligning as East Africa’s allies.

This situation is rather ironic—East Africa was the primary culprit in the fall of the Sultanate of Zanzibar, yet the Zanzibar people made peace with East Africa and, with East African support, regained a certain level of influence within the Omani government.

The Zanzibar people can be seen as East Africa-supported compradors. Zanzibar was initially Omani territory, so the return of the Zanzibar people to Oman was logical. Through cooperation with East Africa, the Zanzibar people amassed significant wealth and networks in Oman, making their reentry into Oman’s political center unsurprising.

Compared to the divided Oman, Persia and the Ottoman Empire were much more enthusiastic toward East Africa, both suffering for years under British and Russian pressures.

Of course, the Ottoman Empire faced more issues than Persia. Many European countries maintained unfriendly relations with the Ottoman Empire, including significant powers like the UK, France, Russia, and Austria-Hungary. Although the Ottoman Empire needed the UK and France to counterbalance Russia, it didn’t mean it favored the British and French.

Some weaker nations also harbored deep-seated grievances against the Ottoman Empire, especially the Balkan Peninsula nations. Each with lofty ambitions, these countries aspired to replace the Ottoman Empire and restore the glory of the Eastern Roman Empire, including Greece, Bulgaria, and Serbia.

The Ottoman Empire also faced competition from co-religionists like Egypt, Persia, and other factions biding their time to secede.

Overall, the Ottoman Empire was plagued by internal and external troubles, facing significant hardships, making the friendly overtures from East Africa to strengthen relations highly valuable.

As for Persia, it practically considered East Africa a savior. While the Ottoman Empire’s national strength allowed it to barely cope with external threats, Persia was utterly downtrodden, caught between the UK and Russia, perpetually beaten with no means of redress.

Persia was profoundly interested in East Africa, as an Indian Ocean coastal country, and had long heard tales of East Africa’s prowess after it single-handedly faced the Anglo-Portuguese Alliance during the war in South Africa.

Persia had previously dispatched people to East Africa to uncover its source of strength, though East Africa showed little interest in Persia at the time.

The situation was now entirely different. East Africa’s intervention in the Middle East and Central Asia presented considerably beneficial opportunities for Arabian sect countries, as increased external involvements allowed them to play different sides against each other, displaying their value as worthwhile allies.