Holy Roman Empire-Chapter 926 - 189: Difference in Ideas

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Chapter 926: Chapter 189: Difference in Ideas

Surveying his surroundings, Ito Hirobumi answered reluctantly, “Your Majesty, this European Continental war is extraordinary. On the surface, it’s about the French expanding in Europe, which has caused Austria’s dissatisfaction and led to the outbreak of war, but fundamentally, it’s a struggle for dominance over the continent.

Due to the Afghan War, England and Russia are tied up and temporarily unable to intervene in Europe, giving France and Austria a chance to defeat their rivals.

As of now, seven European countries including France, Austria, Belgium, Germany, Greece, Montenegro, and Armenia have been dragged into the war. Although the rest of the European countries are still watching, their involvement is not being ruled out.

Although France is powerful, they are fighting alone. If the war continues and more European countries get involved, they might find it hard to withstand the multitude of enemies.

According to reports from Europe, the French have already mobilized over five million troops, and the Anti-French Alliance has mobilized over seven million troops. If we include the colonial confrontations between France and Austria, this number would significantly increase.

A war involving tens of millions of people is not something within our capacity to be involved in. In my view, any strategy to move southwards before the European war is decided would be unwise.”

There’s nothing wrong with that politically, as once war is declared, even countries that just make up the numbers are considered. Greece, Montenegro, and Armenia, those three little entities shouting from the sidelines, are also members of the Anti-French Alliance.

They too have made significant contributions to the anti-French cause, and even if they have achieved nothing militarily, their political contributions are not small.

Common people might not see this, but politicians understand very well. It’s precisely by rallying these small countries to its cause that Austria has managed to define the war as one against French aggression.

France is unpopular in Europe, a well-known fact, after all, Emperor Napoleon had brilliantly beaten everyone into submission, and the Bonaparte Dynasty being ostracized is only to be expected.

Yet being directly opposed by half the countries in Europe, with the remaining neutral nations also dragging their feet, makes this an absolute diplomatic failure in the eyes of Ito Hirobumi.

Based on past experiences, such an impressive France is bound to be severely beaten, and no one knows if new countries will join the war tomorrow. From a political and diplomatic perspective, Ito Hirobumi is completely pessimistic about France’s chances of winning the war.

Being pessimistic about the French does not mean that the Japanese Government can place its bets now. A massive war involving tens of millions of troops is unprecedented even in human history.

Though Japan has somewhat completed the Meiji Restoration, it remains a weak agricultural country, its increased military strength still far too inferior compared to the leading powers.

With just these hundred thousand new troops, their combat ability cannot even match Belgium, and the powerful army that would dominate East Asia in later years is still in its infancy.

The disparity in land forces is significant, and the same is true of naval forces. Against naval powerhouses like England, France, and Austria, just two pre-dreadnoughts could easily defeat the Japanese Navy, and those powerhouses each have such battleships in the double digits.

“The European Continental War is far-reaching, and we indeed do not qualify to get involved. However, attacking the Philippines is not difficult, as Spain has long been in decline and no longer has any right to hold onto its fertile colonies.

With the four major powers of England, Russia, Austria, and France all at war, they cannot spare attention to Far Eastern affairs, making this an ideal time for us to act.

Despite Spain still bearing the title of a major power, they have completely fallen behind in the latest round of military revolution.

According to information collected by the Navy, the Spanish fleet in the Philippines is mostly sailing warships, and their only two ironclads are models from over a decade ago; the Navy is confident they can easily defeat them.

Now that the Suez Canal is blocked, once we destroy Spain’s Philippine fleet, by the time they receive the news and send reinforcements, it would be at least six months later.

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As long as the army can occupy the Philippine Islands within half a year, the Spaniards, without a foothold, will be like a toothless tiger and not worth worrying about,” said Minister of the Navy Saigo Tsugumichi lightly, as if not getting involved in the European Continental War was a matter of course, without feeling the slightest aggrievement.

The rivalry and grudges between the Japanese Land and Sea forces could be traced back hundreds of years, with the historical conflict between the “Choshu faction” and the “Satsuma faction” continuing on.

Facing disdain from the Navy, Army Minister Yamagata Aritomo responded defiantly, “As long as you in the Navy can take care of the enemy’s fleet, our army can occupy the Philippine Islands within half a year.

The fear is that you cannot achieve a quick victory and end up getting stuck with the Spanish Navy, wasting precious time.”

The lack of direct confrontation between the Navy and the Army was absolutely bad news for Ito Hirobumi and the Cultural-Initiates Faction.

No matter how intense the historical conflict between the army’s strategies of moving south and north was, their current strategic differences were fundamentally not significant.

Without securing Korea as a stepping stone first, whether moving southward or northward, the main force must be the Navy, a consensus held by everyone.

On the surface, the Japanese Navy now seemed no match for the Beiyang Fleet, a judgment based solely on the tonnage of their warships.

The Ruler of Japan, not blinded by victory, remained cautiously restrained; not only did he dare not engage in European warfare, but he also harbored a respect for his neighboring country.

To ensure victorious in war, a brief alliance between the land and sea forces under a common interest was only logical, especially since Japan’s current foundation was fragile; one loss could mean total ruin.

As military opinions were nearing consensus, Finance Minister Okuma Shigenobu urgently objected, “No, Spain is a European country. Attacking a Caucasian country rashly could provoke a backlash from the European powers.

If it causes other great powers to interfere, even if we occupied the Philippine Islands, we would ultimately have to relinquish them and might even face Spanish retaliation.

Don’t be fooled by Spain’s decline; their overall strength still surpasses ours, with our only advantage being that the Philippines are too far from them.

But if the European powers were to support them, the situation would be entirely different. They could easily assemble a vast fleet to seek our misfortune.”

This was a fact, as all Japanese naval warships were purchased from Europe, and the Spaniards, situated on the European Continent, would find buying warships even simpler.

Moreover, the Spanish shipbuilding capability is not weak, ranking second only to England, France, and Austria in the whole world, and not something that newly-started Japan could compare with.

Actually, Okuma Shigenobu had more to say that he did not express. The most popular naval theory of the times was the “Century’s Navy,” proposed by the British, which heavily influenced all nations.

Even if the Spanish Navy was in decline, they had a grand lineage, and the tactics and experience passed down were not something the fledgling Japanese Navy could compare with.

Though on the surface the Japanese Navy appeared far superior to the Spanish fleet stationed in the Philippines, whether they could actually defeat them was still an unknown.

If they couldn’t secure a victory immediately, and the Spaniards and their allies played for time waiting for reinforcements before deciding on a decisive battle, the trouble would be significant.

Navy Minister Saigo Tsugumichi analyzed, “Minister Okuma, your concerns about the interference of the powers are not really an issue. Spain and the British have old scores; for years the British have been suppressing Spanish development, and it’s unlikely they would support them.

Initially, the Spanish Government was aligned with the French, as Alfonso XII was supported to power by the French, but recently there’s been a power shift in Spain, and the Pro-Austrian Faction has taken control, parting ways with the French.

If it were only a change of allies, it would not be a big deal; unfortunately, while Spain was pro-Austria, they didn’t truly side with Austria and instead became fence-sitters.

Logically speaking, this European war was Spain’s best opportunity; if they had launched a rear assault on the French, the Anti-French Alliance could have immediately won the war.

With two great powers, Britain and Russia, at their side, Austria needed a strong ally to smoothly dominate the European Continent. It was impossible for Austria to abandon Spain; they could naturally share the fruits of victory with Austria.

Spain gave up such a rare opportunity, hence expecting Austria to do their utmost to help them was quite impossible.

If we act now, we might even garner support from the French, using the pretext of clearing obstructions down south before joining them in attacking Nanyang under Austrian control.

The French government now has no choice, as they are battling alone on the European Continent, with their only ally, the United Kingdom, engaged in combat with Russia. If it weren’t out of desperation, they wouldn’t have sought us out.”

Choosing allies is not a haphazard decision; this era, which was strongly hierarchical, normally saw European countries reluctant to ally with smaller Asian nations, as it was considered highly disgraceful.

From the moment the French Government began to woo the Japanese, they were already regarded as significantly weaker. This is one reason why the Japanese Government’s senior levels were skeptical of the French winning the war.

This is the cultural difference between East and West. In Europe, while face is important, it doesn’t compare with tangible benefits; in the East, face often outweighs benefits.

Basing their judgments on their own entrenched views, the upper echelons of the Japanese Government assumed the French were in dire straits, desperately seeking allies around the world.

If Austria hadn’t overtly disregarded them, even denying them the chance to negotiate, some in the Japanese Government would probably have advocated joining the Anti-French Alliance to seize the opportune moment to snatch French territories in the Indochina Peninsula.

Ito Hirobumi sharply rebuked, “Minister Saigo, that is absolutely a terrible idea. Once we show any intention of approaching the French, we will definitely encounter hostility from Austria.

Even if France preoccupies Austria, preventing them from directly interfering with our actions, that doesn’t mean they can’t set barriers for us.

Don’t forget there’s the Dutch in the Southeast Asia region. If Austria takes the lead and incites the Dutch to intervene, we would have no capability to confront Spain and Netherlands together.”

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