Forging America: My Campaign Manager is Roosevelt-Chapter 65 - 51: Dissecting the Election

Leo began to lay out his overall strategic thinking for the election to his team.

Everyone in the room fell silent.

Frank and Sarah wanted to know what kind of plan Leo had to go up against Carter Wright and Morganfield.

As for Karen and Ethan, the two professionals from Washington, they hoped this presentation would give them a true understanding of the man leading the team they had just joined—the young man who had earned the simultaneous approval of both Sanders and Murphy—and what his thought process was really like.

Leo drew a timeline on the whiteboard.

"Everyone, the war ahead of us can be divided into two main phases."

"The first phase, and the most critical for us, is the Democratic Party primary. According to the election schedule, primary voting day is in five months."

"If we can defeat the incumbent Mayor, Carter Wright, in the primary and secure the official Democratic nomination, then we will have already won eighty percent of this election."

"For the past fifty years, Pittsburgh has been a ’deep-blue’ city. In other words, the vast majority of voters in our city lean toward voting for the Democratic Party."

"As long as we get the Democratic nomination, we’ll have a huge natural advantage in the final general election against our Republican opponent."

"So, all of our energy right now must be focused on how to win this primary."

"And to win the primary, we must first understand one fundamental question."

"Who exactly are the people who vote in the party primary?"

Sarah immediately answered the question.

"The people who vote in the primary aren’t all the citizens of Pittsburgh, but only those voters who explicitly registered as members of the Democratic Party when they registered to vote."

"These people are typically more politically engaged than the average voter. Their political stances are firmer, and their turnout rate is higher."

"Exactly right, Sarah." Leo nodded. "And according to our data, registered Democratic voters in Pittsburgh can be broken down into the following blocs."

He drew several circles of varying sizes on the whiteboard.

"First, the largest bloc, are the Union members and their families, represented by people like Frank. This group is our most important base."

"Second, minority voters living in the communities in the eastern and northern parts of the city, who are mainly African Americans and Latino Americans. Historically, this group has been a reliable voting bloc for the Democratic Party."

"Third, the middle-class liberal intellectuals who live in University City and the upscale neighborhoods around the city center. They’re mainly university professors, lawyers, doctors, and young people working in high-tech companies."

"And the last one, the community voting blocs firmly controlled by the local Democratic Party apparatus and the Establishment Faction. The leaders of these communities, like pastors and community activists, have a tangled web of mutual interests with Carter Wright. They can effectively mobilize the voters in their communities to cast their ballots for him."

"Now, let’s analyze our respective strengths and weaknesses against Carter Wright."

"Carter Wright’s advantage is that after eight years in office, he has a firm grip on that last bloc I mentioned—the Establishment Faction’s community voting blocs. At the same time, through deals with some of the top Union leadership, he still maintains a portion of his traditional support among Union members."

"Our advantages, on the other hand, are twofold."

"First, we have overwhelming support among the rank-and-file blue-collar workers, especially the unemployed and underemployed. This is our base, our stronghold that we absolutely cannot afford to lose."

"Second," Leo’s tone grew excited, "because of the Alex Cortes scandal, the large number of young progressives and idealistic student voters who originally supported him are now a pool of ’homeless’ swing voters."

"Therefore, whoever can successfully capture this group of voters in the primary will gain the upper hand."

After clearly analyzing the voter demographics and their respective strengths and weaknesses, Leo returned to the core question.

"Now, let’s go back to our initial hypothesis."

"If Morganfield really does support Carter Wright at all costs, what will he do? What kind of impact will the massive funds he injects have on this election?"

"First, an information saturation attack."

"They’ll buy up all the primetime ad slots on every local TV and radio station in Pittsburgh. They’ll bombard us with a twenty-four-hour, non-stop barrage of negative ads on all social media platforms like YouTube, Facebook, and X."

"They’ll repeat their smear attacks against me a thousand times, ten thousand times, until even the swing voters start to view us with suspicion and fear."

"Second, buying the ground game."

"They’ll hire thousands of temporary workers at wages far above market rate to go door-to-door canvassing for Carter Wright."

"Meanwhile, we have to rely on Frank’s limited number of volunteers, who are running on pure passion."

"This will put us under immense pressure in terms of the efficiency and coverage of our ground mobilization."

"Third, economic coercion."

"Morganfield controls tens of thousands of jobs in Pittsburgh and the surrounding areas. He doesn’t need to make public threats. He just needs to spread anxiety in the factories—if that radical Wallace gets elected, the corporation might have to consider downsizing its local production lines to mitigate risk."

"To keep their jobs, even workers who support us in their hearts might be forced to side with Carter Wright at the polling station."

"Fourth, a complete social blockade."

"Many of Pittsburgh’s charities, non-profit organizations, and even church food banks depend on annual donations from Morganfield’s foundation to stay afloat."

"The moment he hints at cutting off the funding, those community leaders, pastors, and philanthropists will instantly become Carter Wright’s staunchest advocates, using their prestige in the community to suppress our voice."

"This is the true power of capital. It’s holding the entire city hostage, using survival resources as its weapon."

Leo’s analysis gave Frank and Sarah an incredibly clear picture of what a modern political election truly entails.

They finally understood just how arduous and brutal the war they were about to enter was.

As for Karen and Ethan, they were deeply impressed by the astonishing strategic analysis Leo had just displayed.

They had originally thought Leo was just a community activist running on passion and intuition.

But what they saw now was a strategist capable of calmly analyzing voter demographics, accurately assessing his opponent, and formulating a clear battle plan for a war that would last for months.

Karen looked at Leo, her eyes filled with genuine approval.

"Leo, the analysis you just gave was more precise and insightful than a report I bought from a Washington political consulting firm for fifty thousand US dollars."

"I’m starting to believe you might actually be able to pull off being your own campaign manager."

Ethan Hawke nodded in agreement.

"I finally understand why Senator Daniel Sanders holds you in such high regard."

"You’re a natural at running an election."