Holy Roman Empire-Chapter 967 - 230: High Risk

Chapter 967: Chapter 230: High Risk

The behind-the-scenes insider trading continued, and the casualty report of the war on the European continent was finally released. Without a doubt, both sides suffered heavy losses, with the war’s brutality reaching historical heights.

According to the statistics of the Vienna Government, this war directly led to a population decline of over 12 million on the European continent. Aside from the more than 4 million who emigrated, the rest died in the war.

Statistical data:

The Anti-French Alliance lost 2.377 million soldiers and 1.92 million civilians dead. The specific data are as follows:

Austria: 742,000 soldiers dead, 28,000 civilians dead; (including colonial warfare)

German Federation: 582,000 soldiers dead, 587,000 civilians dead;

Belgium: 273,000 soldiers dead, 556,000 civilians dead;

Spain: 21,000 soldiers dead; (civilian deaths negligible)

Switzerland: 6,000 soldiers dead; (civilian deaths negligible)

Kingdom of Sardinia: 176,000 soldiers dead, 465,000 civilians dead; (including guerrillas and local insurrectionary forces)

…

France: 3.206 million soldiers dead, including 1.368 million from the colonial troops, 417,000 Italian soldiers, and 1.421 million from the domestic forces, with 886,000 civilian deaths. (including civil war)

Looking at the group of cold numbers in hand, Franz sighed. Except for the slightly shorter duration, the brutality of the war was by no means less than that of World War I in the original timeline.

Especially the number of civilian casualties, which far exceeded that of World War I in the original timeline. Apart from the widespread conflict zones, what mattered even more was the displacement it prompted.

Even though the Vienna Government acted promptly to provide relief, it did little to reduce the death toll.

The old, weak, sick, and disabled couldn’t endure the hardship, and many citizens who were not strong enough fell by the wayside while fleeing, unable to wait for rescue.

The statistics only account for civilian deaths on the European continent. If the civilian deaths in the colonies were included, the final number might double.

With so many deaths, the injuries and casualties were not even worth mentioning. Since injuries can be cumulative and lead to duplicated counts, the Vienna Government didn’t bother to calculate them precisely.

After a while, Franz remarked, “Looking at the current situation, France is essentially ruined! Unless something unexpected happens, they won’t recover their vitality for thirty years.”

From any perspective, the French situation now is even more dire than in the original timeline.

In the original World War I, although they also suffered heavy losses, France emerged as a victor and gained war benefits, with neither the colonies nor the homeland suffering losses.

But now it’s different, not only did they suffer heavy losses, but they also lost all their wealth, and what awaits them next is a long period of debt repayment.

Even if they wanted to emulate the revival of the German Three from the ashes, France lacks the capital for revival. Not to mention the collapsed domestic economy, the key point is they don’t even have the population for it.

As a main actor in the European war, France’s population losses are not small. Just the direct deaths alone amount to over two million, and the number of injured and disabled is likely not much lower. Add the emigrants to that, and the number becomes even more staggering.

With experience as his guide, Franz could assert that France would face a labor gap, especially with a severe shortage of male labor.

Without solving these issues, France’s population is set for a long period of negative growth in the future.

This situation is evident when one looks at neighboring Russia. Once the top country in Europe for birth rates, after several wars, its birth rate plummeted, even experiencing negative growth at one point.

Russia’s ability to recover in just a few short years is due to the Russians’ high eagerness to reproduce, which is not matched by the French enthusiasm for procreation.

If the economy cannot be revived, it’s probable that France’s post-war birth rate will plummet to a historical low.

The population growth rate of France after World War I in the original timeline is highly indicative; in twenty years, they only grew by over one million. Excluding the increase from immigration, France’s population growth rate effectively turned negative.

In the era of industry 2.0, if there is a shortage of labor, then nothing else matters. Austria became the world’s top economic power because of its population far exceeding that of its competitors.

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If Austria, like France, had fallen into a population bottleneck in the 19th century, even if Franz worked his hardest, he couldn’t have built a great empire.

“The French still have some foundation left, as long as this war ends, they can still sustain themselves.”

Now, Belgium and the recently independent Italian States are the most miserable, their economies have completely collapsed in the war, a thorough mess.

If it weren’t for our support, they would already be starving. To recover economically, the difficulty is no less than waging another European war.”

It was clear that Prime Minister Carl was suffering from a severe headache. When waging a war, having many allies is always better; swarming the enemy is certainly more advantageous than fighting alone.

But after the war ended, the situation was entirely different. No matter what, we all crouched in the same trench, carried guns together, and bled together. If younger brothers are struggling and come to us for help, it’s tough to justify not lending them a hand.

Lending a hand isn’t a problem, the key is that this isn’t something that can be pulled off with just one try. The trauma left by the war is too profound; both Belgium and the Italian States are now impoverished.

When they could be self-sufficient, no one can answer that question. Anyway, without a few years of effort, don’t even think about catching a breath.

As the biggest victor of the war, the outside world only sees Austria’s glory; no one knows about the Vienna Government’s empty coffers.

The war may be over, but the Austrian Government’s debt is still rapidly climbing. Post-war domestic rehabilitation costs money, reconstructing the Rhineland region costs money, unifying the Germany Region still costs money, and supporting the younger brothers still costs money.

If it weren’t for bearing the title of a “hegemon,” the confidence of the capital market in the Austrian Government has been raised to an unprecedented level, and the Vienna Government would already be close to a financial crisis.

Franz rubbed his forehead, “We can’t just give money directly anymore. The war is over, they must learn to be independent. Wait till the Vienna Peace Conference is over, then we’ll lay it out for them.

If they want to get funding, they must follow market rules. We can issue bonds for them, or we can issue bonds on their behalf, but the interest must be determined by the market.”

In fact, the aid provided by Austria was never free. But compared to the capital market, the funds offered by the Vienna Government were the ultimate show of a capitalist’s conscience.

“Interest-free loans,” and those without any conditions, one wouldn’t find such a conscientious creditor anywhere else in the world.

However, this “conscience” had a time limit. During the war, in order to strike at the French, the Vienna Government was naturally full of “conscience.” Now that the war is over, the “conscience” has been spent.

To be frank, if it wasn’t because the banknotes were printed in excess before and there were concerns about the repayment ability of various countries, even continuing to issue interest-free loans would be fine.

After all, what was lent out was the Divine Shield, not gold. Since they have taken the Divine Shield, post-war reconstruction of these countries cannot do without Austria.

Through trade means, most of this money would still flow back, promoting the economic development of Austria, and the Vienna Government wouldn’t lose out.

Regrettably, during the war, the Vienna Government had already started the printing press, and there’s now a bit of an oversupply of the Divine Shield in circulation.

Playing this game any further would clearly be inappropriate. Should any link in the chain break, inflation would be minutes away.

To stabilize prices and the value of the Divine Shield, the Vienna Government also had no choice but to think of ways to recall the excess banknotes from the market, for example: issuing bonds.

In this context, the debt of the Vienna Government is naturally increasing by the day. However, compared to the currency hegemony of the Divine Shield, this little price isn’t worth mentioning.

After all, there is still a competitor—”British Pounds”—and it’s far from the time to act with reckless abandon.

Economy Minister Reinhardt reminded, “Your Majesty, the current intelligence is very special. Due to the war, the outside world is skeptical about Belgium and the Italian States’ ability to repay their debts.

Furthermore, with the recent news of France’s debt default and the German Federation’s debt default incident, the capital market has been agitated, and the overall market is in a cautious state.

Unless we provide a credit guarantee for them, they would be unable to obtain financing on the capital market.”

The risk involved is enormous. Based on the data we’ve gathered, Belgium and the Italian States have a ninety percent chance of defaulting on their debt.”

Even though Franz was prepared and knew this was a high-risk deal, he was still startled by the “ninety percent chance of default.”

Gambling doesn’t even go that far; no wonder no one on the capital market showed any interest.

If Austria provides a guarantee, the chance of default is as high as ninety percent; if it were an ordinary financial institution, wouldn’t the chance of default be a hundred percent?

After a moment’s hesitation, Franz still decided to take on this risk. After all, they are allies, and the Vienna Government couldn’t just watch them die!

If these younger brothers were to collapse, and we were to support new ones, who could guarantee that the new government would continue pro-Austria policies? If the British manage to cheat them away, the losses for Austria could be tremendous.