MTL - Internet 2010-~ No change - small talk

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Hello everyone, my name is Zhennan.

Still chatting casually today. Thinking about it, it seems to have become a monthly routine, writing it once or twice a month, and chatting a few words with the readers. I used to talk about writing and my experience in the past, but today I would say that it is not the same as before.

Recently, two small things happened to me, and there was no connection at all. One was my cousin Xiaodong who came to find me, and the other was a WeChat chat with my school girl Xiaosu. But together, it's not the same thing.

It's July now, so I've only been at home for two months this year, and most of the rest of the time. Going out has nothing to do with the company's business, and the company is just as big as it is. Without me, the salary is paid, and the business is done. Anyway, you can't make a lot of money at the end of the year. Most of the time I was in a provincial capital on the border, and I was quite leisurely when I was young, so I didn’t count as a trip. After all, I had to go out with people every now and then.

My cousin, who came to me in time for the exam week, brought his little girlfriend with him in the name of traveling. Tell me about this, then I must have to think about it, isn't this cowardly coming to me? The city I'm currently in is a tourist city, and that counts as well. But you come all the way here, and the travel expenses are enough for the couple to eat a few big meals, play a ride, drive a few times...it's a lot of tossing.

After they came, I also borrowed a car to take them around. I certainly don't care if I live. My elders live comfortably by themselves, and live happily after getting rid of their girlfriends. How can I treat you to me when you come? So they let me rush to the hotel to stay.

It was the third day after they came, my cousin Xiaodong asked me to have a late night snack at eleven o'clock in the evening. Here is supper, and what should come will come.

What about this little brat, I'm so many years older than him. When I was still studying, my grades were actually in the middle and upper reaches, but I couldn't hold back my mother's boasting. As a result, I became the "other's child" among my relatives. In particular, I also have the virtue of bragging, especially after I went to college, I became even more out of control. This Xiaodong said that he admired me a little bit, so this statement is probably not too much. Then, after having a late-night snack with him, he casually talked about his recent situation, and asked him about his time at school. Xiaodong also talked about the topic.

"Brother. I can save some living expenses for a month. Do you want to do some financial management?"

Ouch, the little expression on the questioning face, there was a little anticipation in the nervousness. First, I was afraid that I would give him a slap in the face, and secondly, he wanted to do something with me.

I ate a meat skewer and slurped two sips of beer, and I didn't know what to say for a while.

Why? I am a person who can toss and toss. When I study, I also save my family members worry. But to tell him from my experience, it really isn't universal.

After thinking for a while, I spoke straight.

You don't want to manage money, you just want to ask how to make money, and it's better to talk about how to make quick money.

The Xiaodong family actually belongs to a very wealthy family, especially the only child. His living expenses are also two or three thousand a month, according to the conditions I used to study, this is the emperor's treatment.

Let me give you a meal at the end of this supper. It's not good to talk about it, there are thousands of students in the student stage. Want to make money? Regular or Yu'ebao, the entire phone bill for a year? Fund stocks? It was a lot of tossing, and I picked up the sesame and dropped the melon in minutes. I asked him why he wanted the money, but the result was nothing more than a virgin friend spending money, going to a restaurant every three or five times, and not going home during festivals for a trip around the area, anyway, the living expenses for the two were not enough. At the end, it’s also a commonplace saying that you should accumulate and accumulate during your student days, and then toss it if you have more money when you are financially independent.

People told me to rush back to the hotel, but I couldn't help regretting it when I went back to my place. TM used to be so awesome, but I didn't realize that I became an "old man". When I opened my mouth, it was what students should do. I didn't hate these remarks the most. But think about it again, is it really old? It is still useful to read two more books, but I don't know if this view is an experience and experience that came out of the society at a certain moment.

Xiaodong things, even if this is the case. His young couple has been wandering to the school where the exam of a certain subject is approaching, and I don't know what they played in the middle. After all, I am not playing with me. At most, before leaving, I booked two air tickets, economy class.

Then there was the matter of the school girl Xiao Su, who received her WeChat one night.

Xiao Su is not directly related to me, but from the next door, I know him in the school club. As far as my tossing and morals are concerned, considering that there are few girls in the courtyard, and the ratio of males and females in the club is balanced, I stayed in the post for a year in the second year, and I also met Xiaosu. Of course, in fact, I also stayed in the third year, and continued to paddle in the club, because Xiao Su did not find what I liked this year. However, it turns out that this is of no use. I do a lot of things myself, and I basically don't participate in activities. If there is, I will go to the regular meeting once every two weeks to brag. How can you deceive the school girl?

But speaking, my relationship with Xiao Su has always been good, especially after graduation, I can chat on WeChat two or three times a year. Well, two or three times is really good. After all, after college, there are very few people left to keep in touch with each other. I also thought about the reasons for the good relationship with Xiao Su, and I really caught some signs later. At that time, WeChat did not develop for a long time. At that time, bibs and Renren were the most popular in schools. All clubs also operated these tools. If a school organization could achieve thousands of followers, it would be quite remarkable.

Then I, a paddling person, did something very "wicked" and bought some fans for the scarf of my own club... These gangsters thought they were rewarded for implementing the operating guidelines of their superiors, but the result was A few of us seniors had to pay to go out for a dinner party. Then, at the time of the internal beta test of the WeChat public account, I was the first to pay attention to this matter. As for the community, then we did it backhand, and later opened up the interface, and also engaged in interface programming, and created a hacking website. The website is gone, but the main body of the official account of the society is still the ID card of someone in Shenzhen, and it has been a few years since graduation.

After I graduated, I went to work for a mobile phone company, and the stakeholder was not nominated. Did Xiao Su graduate later and embark on the road of operating a public account. I'm guilty of this, I'm responsible... Think about it, so far Baidu Cloud still has some things left over from the past, such as the operation method of the official account of the scarf. But I don't know if it was because Xiao Su first came into contact with this thing or something. I guess she really regarded me as a "big touch" at that time. Sometimes when you have nothing to do, you can talk to me about your work experience.

Dear sister, you find a programmer to exchange operational experience, Baidu is really tired on my side. This b can make me miserably tired. After all, although it is an earlier official account user, I really don't care about how it will develop in the future.

In this chat, Xiao Su also talked about something and asked me about my views on investment and financial management. So I went through a lot of historical records and skipped it in 2018. She didn't ask about it. In February of 2017, she might have saved a little over the years after graduation, and she also asked me about it. Opinion.

I said something like this: Risks and benefits must coexist. You really want to engage in P2P. Some 10%-20% a year sounds very high, but the risks are really not small. Everyone sees it and runs away. There are really many platforms. I have not done p2p, but there are a lot of hearsay. In my opinion, if you want to say that the fixed investment fund is not happy, I will also tell you something else. One is Agu Bank, one is Tencent NetEase, and the other is PetroChina.

I looked at this message I posted in February 2017. At that time, I really wanted to hammer myself to death, so why can't I change my bragging virtues? ! And while I think about it, it seems that I also donate these things to others. Even my mother bought some Tencent. Of course, she also bought LeTV, and she smiled fascinatedly.

I won't judge too much on the second and third, and on the first or third, I will focus on the second. I have a deep resentment for a certain pain, because I was rejected by the ugly, and I often listened to some classmates bragging. Oh, at the end of the year, my father gave out bonuses and shares. When I first went to work, my income was not too high. At that time, I was talking about taking more options. Even in those days, I had to buy one or two stocks that suffered from certain pains a year.

It's actually just unpleasant. It didn't work out, it was so lucky. But just my stinky mouth, I don't know how many times I have given Amway to others over the years. The time to speak is early, and the ending may be gratifying for those who listen. After all, I did not make a mistake in this two or three. But from today's point of view, from a rational point of view, in fact, the reasons for these statements all come from my youth and ignorance.

I didn't dare to ask in February 2017, I didn't know whether Xiao Su bought it or not. At that time, it was painful and a lot of money. If I really didn't buy it, I wouldn't say nonsense. Seeing how quiet and calm she looks in the chat, I think she didn't buy it and didn't pay attention, but in the end she made her turn to the historical records, and unconsciously regarded me as a madman who could be trusted. For this investment and financing question.

But I think that Xiao Su Ding was disappointed after this chat. I didn't think about giving a mysterious "wealth code" like two years ago. But tm really wants me to say it, but I dare not say it. If you run a public account, I will bear the blame. Anyway, the job is still successful. Although the industry is not as prosperous as a few years ago, let me give me some more awesome passwords. I am really afraid to be right. You are responsible for the rest of your life, and I also have a girlfriend.

Well, chatting about something bad, this is the end of the experience. Let's get to the point of gossip and talk about "gambling". Ahhh, "speculation". Ahhh, "investment".

Well, today we are talking about investing.

It made me have deep doubts about my old self, the bragging self, because as I grew older, I learned more and more, and then I realized my ignorance.

I talked about such a thing with my cousin Xiaodong when we had a late-night snack. I said that I would give him a chance to get rich, just tonight.

The method is also very simple. I bought a deck of playing cards from the convenience store at the roadside stand. I told him, we're not too complicated, just compare the size of a deck of cards, shuffle a deck of cards, each of them gets one, and whoever has the bigger wins a hundred. Xiaodong's face was directly clustered into chrysanthemums after hearing this. It's not good to talk about it, no one can listen to it.

I took the card, and then drew out Dawang and Xiaowang and scratched the back of the card. I said, you shuffle the cards, I made a mark on the back of the king and Xiaowang. If you have the ability, you can wash out the king and Xiaowang. You said if you have a chance to get rich tonight. Xiaodong has been my younger brother for all these years, and he knows what I am about. I actually want to express some truths, but I don't want to understand what it is because of his experience.

"Uncertainty", "certainty", this is what I will teach him next. Most people can probably draw a simple inference based on their feelings. Knowing that the big and small kings have scratches can improve the winning rate and the chance of winning. And if it is a little more logical, this game can use the mathematical tools of statistics and probability to write a conclusion with high credibility.

That night, the deck of cards was not used again. Extravagance is extravagance, and a pair of Yaoji also takes a few dollars. After supper, it was brought back to my residence.

Friends who are struggling in the market, the words "technical analysis" and "fundamental analysis" should be heard a lot.

Technical analysis is based on the historical transaction of the target, supplemented by various indicators, and then judges the next trend. Commonly, we will see some so-called analyst reports, which are densely drawn with various lines, such as the average price ma for a certain period of time, trend lines, Fibonacci regression, resistance pressure levels, and so on.

Fundamental analysis is based on the actual situation of the environment and the target, such as national or regional economic development trends, the central bank’s exchange rate policy, speeches by important personnel, important media opinions, and group sentiment, and the actual situation of the target, such as operating revenue, cost, profit, and price-earnings ratio. Price-to-book ratio, dividends, shareholder position changes, etc.

From the perspective of thinking, there is no problem with the two. After all, it is the law summed up by countless big touches in the process of the financial market starting from nothing. And if you put it together with the poker thing, then in fact, everyone in the market is doing only one thing, find the scratched king and king, and then increase your probability of winning the game. To put it bluntly, it is to remove "uncertainty" from technical analysis and fundamental analysis and find "certainty".

But most people are actually doing the wrong things with the right ideas.

Above, I used the word "judgment", not "prediction". The price rise or fall at a certain moment is important, but not as important as most people think. For example, take profit and stop loss, position management, are very important but easily overlooked joints.

Today, the financial market is a very electronic market, and as more and more innovators enter, it has also undergone tremendous changes. In a sense, the threshold is constantly lowering. In various senses.

In terms of data, in recent years, service platforms such as Jukuan that provide data services and technical support for financial quants have also been born. Quantitative trading has existed before similar platforms, and if we look back far enough, its history is far greater than we imagined.

Next, I will use Chinese to write a "pseudo code" to let everyone feel the difference.

[code initial]:

Take all the historical transaction data of 1000 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, number these stocks from 0-999, all data of 1000 stocks are represented by all, all[0] represents the first stock, and all[1] represents the second stock stock......

Take the stock data all[0] with number 0, calculate the values ​​of ma, rsi, Fibonacci, and a series of indicators

When an indicator of stock No. 0 is higher than a certain level, it will return a sell signal, and if it is lower than a certain level, it will return a buy signal.

After the number 0 stock is calculated, continue to calculate the number 1 until the number 999 position

Indicator data storage table all2

===============

[code backtest]:

Set the initial capital to be 1 million

Take the table data all2 stored in [code initial]

Set the ratio of each investment to 20% of the principal

According to the buying and selling of all2 data, the simulated buying and selling operation is performed from all2[0] until the position of all2[999]

Calculate the percentage of backtests for all 100 stocks under the strategy

Set the investment principal ratio as a variable from 1-20%, and test the backtest percentage of different investment positions in turn

record stores all data as all3

===============

[code simulation]:

Take the data all3 generated by [code initial]

Take all3[0], and generate trading price fluctuations in the next 300 days according to random numbers

According to the optimal results of [code backtest], simulate the backtest ratio of trading strategies and positions in the next 300 days

record all data

......

Well, of course these pseudocodes are not executable. But we often speak computer language, no matter what kind of language, its implementation is designed by people, and it is not as complicated as imagined to convert these pseudocodes into actual computer language.

Of course, whether the effect is good or not is another matter. Things like strategy, no matter any market, it needs to be constantly adjusted, and machine decision-making is an important part, but it is also inseparable from the controller itself to adjust the strategy. In [code backtesting], we describe a process. Based on past history, we let the computer simulate in a certain strategy and position management. If you use this thing to buy and sell in the past, it can make money. And then in the [code simulation], we randomly generated the future transaction price, and used this strategy and position management to set it in.

Position management is more famous such as Kelly's formula, and the simulation is done by Monte Carlo simulation. The means and methods are many and varied, and we will not go into detail here.

ok, then here comes the problem. I said that the idea of ​​technical analysis is correct, but most people do it incorrectly, and the answer is here.

Technical analysis is derived from past history and combines various indicators to improve the winning rate. But I don't think an ordinary person can end up doing better than a machine by seeing and scribing with the naked eye.

For example, a person is trading, and he has a lot of personal positions, so what he expects is that the market price will rise next, so the behavior of drawing a line is a very subjective operation. Different people are operating on the same chart, and finally it may Innumerable results, infinite possibilities.

Furthermore, talking about technical analysis, is it possible for ordinary people to pay attention to 1,000 stocks every day? And the mainstream trading market, not to mention the currency market of foreign exchange futures, the stock market alone, which is not the number of thousands of major trading venues in the world.

So, anyone making market predictions is shit. You say you do technical analysis? No, you are gambling.

Well, the way of technical analysis can't go, then he said that he is doing fundamental analysis, he is afraid that I can't blow him up? Ha ha.

Let's take a look. We just mentioned that there are several aspects of fundamental analysis, which are divided into two parts: quantifiable and non-quantifiable.

For example, there are many numerical expressions of national economic development, such as gdp, industrial and agricultural data, and employment data. The exchange rate and monetary policy are also relatively clear. Another example is the company's operating conditions, revenue, cost, profit, and price-earnings. Above, this is the quantifiable part of the fundamentals. The idea of ​​​​refuting is similar to that of technical analysis. Can you still pay attention to the numerical fundamentals of hundreds of countries and thousands of companies every day? I'm sorry, but the machine can still send alarms, make decisions, simulate, and tell you positions, stop losses and take profits.

The non-numerable part is the problem. But there are still solutions.

For example, a friend said, "Hey, I read reference news every day. Various daily newspapers catch the speeches of important people. It's the trivial matter of the third aunt and the sixth woman next door rushing to open an account. This is how I look at the market.

So, I felt my conscience and opened the official website of Baidu ai. I found Natural Language Processing and checked the "Sentimental Tendency Analysis" column. Ouch, you don't need to write the demo, you can directly experience the input box.

I wrote, "Sima bird stock market, cut leeks every day, I don't play **** anymore"

The page directly returned me an 83% negative sentiment score.

Then I wrote a sdk (developer tool) that got Baidu ai and wrote a demo, and the returned result is not complicated, a classification result represents the sentiment polarity, a confidence level represents the credibility of the classification polarity, and then The respective probabilities of the positive and negative classes. I was wondering if I should try to grab hundreds of thousands of pieces of data from some places, and then I saw that Emma said that Baidu's technology is very good, and this one feels a little bit. This interface service is free within 5qps, and can be requested five times per second within 2048 bytes, with a free quota of 430,000 times a day.

Of course, I can write an AI myself, find a bunch of data to train the model, and end up with a sentiment analysis program I want.

What's the point?

The parts that cannot be digitized can be "forcibly" digitized today with the development of technology. You say a word, whether it is good or bad, don't look down on the machine and don't understand whether it is j or b. What about someone else? Change a piece of text? An official statement? The truth is, the ending is the same.

The only thing is that Baidu AI is not easy to use, you have to make one yourself.

But the sample you adopt is large enough, and this thing can achieve a good effect.

For example, the search engine is one of the tools that best understands our collective emotions. If we open the Baidu Index and search for "A-share account opening", when we stretch the cycle long enough, individuals can also find some interesting patterns. For example, the peak period in 2015 was the highest point in the history of this search term, and at the beginning of the last 19 years, the index of this keyword has also shown a certain increase.

Of course, the naked eye can see a little bit of regularity, but it's just a little bit far from actually turning it into a meaningful tool. "A-share account opening" is OK, but "A-share market" is not feasible? or other keywords.

Therefore, we also found one thing from top to bottom, the realization of technical analysis, I, a broken programmer, can tell the truth, the quantifiable part of the fundamentals, the difficulty lies in the data source, and the non-quantifiable part of the fundamentals , lies in how to force numericalization, or reduce the noise of the data. From top to bottom, the difficulty increases layer by layer, but you have to believe that there are people in the market who can really do this. UU reading www.uukanshu.com

why? It's not about finding a "certainty" in this "uncertain" market to improve the odds of winning. Everyone is looking for the scratched big and small king, the more capable, the more means. So you say you are investing or gambling?

Here, I say a word, "Cambridge-Analysis". The rest is left to everyone's imagination. When we talk about this kind of topic, we have to talk about big data, which is a headache.

Alright, the talk is coming to an end here. So today's testimonial is to persuade people to stay away from "gambling" and do less stupid things. Life is actually pretty good.

As for me, I put my mind right, and I don't want to brag with people. After all, even if I'm right, it's a crime of ignorance committed by my youth. Someone may want to worship you, but he really won't give you money, at most just a meal, and if you guess wrong, there may be times when you will turn against each other. After thinking about some things clearly, we will say a few words less, which is good for ourselves and others. (Crooked translation, you can make money, you can make a fortune honestly and silently)

Of course, there are "geniuses" everywhere. If you want to try to become such a person, you should try to stand a little higher, look farther, and be less concerned about the immediate gains and losses. I'm leaning over there, do you want to go differently?

Well, finally, thanks to every reader who supports this book.

As for the testimonials, international practice, I will delete them after a period of time. When I was reading, I was not happy to read and give me some **** comments, and I didn't want to start it, so I waited until I finished the book and then released it all.

That's all for today, no more today. See you later.

ps: This article does not constitute any investment opinions and suggestions. The citation of Baidu ai is for discussion material only and does not constitute any bullish opinion on Baidu's stock. I am not responsible for any misoperation caused by writing a program due to the simple implementation principle.