MTL - Mystery Hunter-Chapter 15 Iron nails

"and many more."

A crisp voice came out, and the person who spoke was Jiang He.

Seeing that everyone was looking at him, Jiang He said, "Before I was fifty percent sure that Li Weiyi was the murderer, but after hearing what Li Weiyi said, there was only a ten percent chance that Li Weiyi was the murderer. ."

Wang Chao was a little puzzled. He looked at Jiang He and replied after a moment of thought: "From all aspects of analysis, the words Li Weiyi said are consistent in terms of motivation and timing. What he said about killing The method and some specific details are also consistent with what you and I saw on the scene before."

Xu Yiman also said: "Yes, didn't you say that Li Weiyi was the murderer before? Why do you say that Li Weiyi is not the murderer now? I really don't understand you."

Jiang He retorted: "Probability is a thing that needs to be integrated based on all the information. Before there are no additional conditions, the probability is likely to be 100%, but if there are additional conditions, the probability is likely to drop to zero."

Xu Yiman was helpless: "Just be happy."

"Then let me talk about a few points that I don't think information and inference can match." Jiang He said quickly.

"First, from the information left at the scene, I have 80% confidence that Wu Guifeng committed suicide. But in Li Weiyi's words, Li Weiyi said that he killed Wu Guifeng, which is inconsistent with my inference. ."

Saying that, Jiang He looked at the detective who had been beaten by him before: "After seeing the knife stuck in Wu Guifeng's body, I did an experiment with this detective. The result of the experiment was that if Wu Xiufen was murdered by him , then the murderer should be holding the knife in the backhand."

Jiang He picked up a pen beside him and simulated the murderer's movements in his hand. I saw Jiang He held the signature pen with his backhand: "The side of the signature pen facing outward is the blade, and the side facing me is the back of the blade. Only in this way can the murderer cause such a wound on Wu Guifeng's body. Moreover, he must master the angle, otherwise, with such a stabbing method, the knife is very likely to cut through the abdomen."

Jiang He shook his head: "If it's really Li Weiyi, then why did he kill people in such an awkward posture? It's very strange."

Everyone was silent for a while, and Wang Chao said, "Is it possible that he pulled the knife out of He Huijuan's body with a backhand, and it is not surprising that he used the backhand to draw the knife. Li Weiyi also said that he rushed out in a hurry. Yes, it may be too late to adjust the posture of holding the knife, don't you also say that Wu Guifeng has the possibility of homicide."

Jiang He nodded and stabbed himself with his signature pen: "You're right, but the probability of suicide is obviously much higher. But as long as it is theoretically possible, anything can happen. Probability theory is a wonderful Things, even as high as ninety-nine percent, are not certain."

"But this is just one of the suspicious points." Jiang He said again: "According to Li Weiyi, after he heard the movement from the entrance, he immediately went out to check, and then he killed his mother at the entrance. But at the scene, on the floor or even the wall at the entrance, I didn't see any bloodstains of sputtering. Nor did I see any footprints on the floor, not a single footprint."

It was Wang Chao who spoke again: "When we went there, in order not to damage the scene, we basically stepped over the pool of blood in one step, and the security guards must have done the same. I think there may be blood spatters, but Wu Guifeng was not after that. Is it still bleeding, the new blood has covered the previous blood, this is a high probability."

Jiang He put down his signature pen: "On the door, there is only a **** handprint left by Wu Guifeng on the doorknob. After Li Weiyi killed someone, there should be bloodstains on his hands. A little trace. Besides, after stabbing Wu Guifeng, there is not even a single trace of blood on his clothes and shoes, which makes no sense."

The points that Jiang He put forward are indeed difficult to explain, and if this Li Weiyi is not lucky enough to not be stained with blood, then Li Weiyi is not the murderer at all. But the current evidence points to Li Weiyi, and Wang Chao can only consider the former.

Wang Chao said: "Wait, let's ask together, including where he threw his mobile phone. If he can match these, then basically the case can be finalized."

Jiang He nodded.

Xu Yiman had been standing by, listening to the conversation between Jiang He and Wang Chao about the murderer, and suddenly a strong curiosity arose in his heart. A simple case can have hundreds of different possibilities, and these people are trying to find the truth among these chaotic possibilities.

"But there is one thing we have to consider." Xu Yiman cleared his throat and joined the discussion: "You guys, if a person says he killed his wife and mother, think about how much torment he should endure. Especially if this person didn't kill someone, but said that he killed someone, and he killed his own relatives, this is even more unreasonable, doesn't he want to find the real murderer?"

Wang Chao agreed with Xu Yiman's words: "What you said is very reasonable, and analyzing the psychology of criminals is also a course in our university. In ancient terms, this is a **** revenge that has to be avenged. If it is not Li Weiyi's doing , then Li Weiyi must not tear the murderer to pieces."

Jiang He dismissed it, "Although you said you've seen someone who can see what a criminal is thinking, I think that's a very unreliable thing. Especially psychology, it's just a general summary. It’s just experience, it doesn’t make a big difference at all. It’s okay to guess what other people are thinking in this way, but I will never use it in solving cases.”

Wang Chao shrugged: "In your words, seeing is believing. I believe that one day you will meet such a person."

Jiang He added: "This kind of reasoning is based on a guess. If you use information that is inherently uncertain to infer a conclusion, then the conclusion is based on ambiguous information, and the conclusion may not even exist. , how can we infer the probability of this conclusion?"

Wang Chao and Xu Yiman were speechless. They both knew that Jiang He's words were wrong, but they didn't know how to refute it, and there was no way to refute it.

In fact, after all, people are not machines, they are sentient beings. Emotional animals are born with the ability to see through the psychology of others, but there are strong and weak ones.

If that formidable expert is one of the best in this area, Jiang He is basically zero.

The interrogation resumed, this time focusing on a few suspicious points.

Xu Yiman, who had already completed the task, could go back to the city bureau, and now it was almost time to get off work. But Xu Yiman seemed to be interested. At this moment, she really wanted to find out whether Li Weiyi did this case. Regardless of the result or not, she wanted to hear what Li Weiyi would say.

"Li Weiyi, it's up to you. Tell me in detail how you killed He Huijuan and Wu Guifeng, and restore your actions at the time." Wang Chao said, and rolled an A4 piece of paper into one. The strip was handed to Li Weiyi.

Li Weiyi took the paper, first grabbed the paper roll with his right backhand, and then stabbed it straight down. Then, in the same posture, he stabbed and pulled down obliquely in a very awkward posture. Seeing this, a big stone in Wang Chao's heart fell to the ground. He glanced at Jiang He next to him, meaning that Li Weiyi should be the murderer.

Jiang He didn't speak at the moment, he was just observing Li Weiyi.

Li Weiyi threw the paper roll on the ground and said, "That's it, is there a problem?"

Wang Chao didn't answer, but continued to ask, "Where's the blood on your shoes on your clothes?"

"Throw it." Li Weiyi replied: "I ran out, but there was blood on my body. Although there was not much blood, I was also afraid, so I went to the unit to change into a formal suit."

"Where did you throw it?" Wang Chao asked.

Li Weiyi probed his hand: "I thought about suicide, I wanted to jump into the river and die, but I didn't have the guts, so I threw my clothes into the river."

"Where exactly?" Wang Chao asked carefully about this kind of information.

"The area on Erlong Street, I can't tell exactly where it is." Li Weiyi replied.

Wang Chao continued to ask, "Where did you throw the phone?"

"Forget it, I remember that I threw it away not long after I left the community, but I was so scared at the time that I didn't know exactly where I threw it. But I didn't use any force, and the phone was still intact when I threw it out." Li Weiyi took it seriously. Reply.

"Are you turned off?" Wang Chao asked.

Li Weiyi shook his head: "No shutdown."

At this moment, a criminal policeman came in from outside the door and whispered something in Wang Chao's ear. Wang Chao nodded again and again. After a while, Wang Chao let the criminal policeman look at Li Weiyi, and he was the Greeting Jiang He Xu Yiman to come out.

"What's wrong?" Jiang He asked.

Wang Chao closed the door and said, "Our comrades from the criminal police team found out that Li Weiyi's figure was found in a camera at the entrance of Chengshun Street. Chengshun Street is not far from Li Weiyi's home. It’s far away, and it takes about 15 minutes to walk there. And this old-fashioned community is open, that is, you can enter from all directions, so there is no camera to see whether Li Weiyi has gone back.”

"However." Wang Chao looked at the direction of the interrogation room: "This is very telling. The time is about 10:40 in the morning, and the time is consistent. And just now, you looked at Li Weiyi's actions, although it was awkward. , which can be consistent with the direction of the wound. As for clothes and mobile phones, this may be a big project."

Wang Chao looked at everyone: "Close the case, and hand over the evidence to the court at that time."

With that said, Wang Chao and Xu Yiman shook hands: "Thank you so much, I have time to come to play with us, but I don't want it to be because of the case."

Xu Yiman smiled: "I also hope that I will never have to work, but there is no way. In our city alone, on average, two people are born every day, and two people die every day. It is impossible for doctors to rest. Of course, so does the forensic medicine.”

Wang Chao sighed, "That's right, right, Jiang He, I really want to thank you this time, without you..."

But when Wang Chao looked up like this, there was still Jiang He's figure: "No, wasn't he still here just now, where are you?"

A criminal policeman said, "While the two of you were talking, he left, and he also borrowed three hundred yuan from me, saying that it was Captain Wang that you would pay him back..."