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MTL - The Rebirth of the Financial Hegemon-v3 Chapter 75 it's not a trap
ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Its member countries are Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Singapore, Brunei, Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia.
Its predecessor was the Association of Southeast Asian Nations established in Bangkok on July 31, 1961 by Malaya, the Philippines and Thailand.
If it is placed in the eyes of later generations, it is difficult for this ASEAN to have a sense of existence.
You might think it's all about some unpopular countries.
Together, these countries are probably not as thick as China's arm, let alone wrestling with the United States.
With the exception of Singapore, ASEAN member states are all poor clanking.
But that wasn't the case, at least not in the nineties.
The "four little tigers" headed by Thailand and Indonesia were able to go hand in hand with the four little dragons in Hong Kong and South Korea, which shows their economic status at that time.
Under the rapid economic rise, ASEAN has a tendency to restrict the US control of the Asian market.
Once ASEAN's member countries are fully integrated economically and politically, it is likely to weaken the global influence of the United States.
The United States can become the No. 1 power fundamentally by relying on the absolute status of the US dollar.
More than 90 percent of global trade settlements are denominated in U.S. dollars.
Therefore, whether from a political or economic point of view, the United States is not willing to see the membership of ASEAN increase again.
The international circulation value of currency is reflected in the comprehensive national strength of a country.
Conversely, when a country's national strength is weakened, the value of its currency is weakened.
There is a mutual influence among them.
If ASEAN expands to some extent and plays a trick with the Dong Yuan, Southeast Yuan or something, that could seriously hurt the dollar.
The United States will never agree to this.
In 1996, ASEAN had eight member countries.
In addition, there are three other countries including Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia and Papua New Guinea.
Geographically, Myanmar extends to the northwest of Thailand.
Once Myanmar joins the ASEAN political economy, there is no suspense that Laos and Cambodia will join.
Beneath the interests, no country wants to add a huge economy.
Even the United States, the No. 1 power, does not want such a huge competitor out of thin air.
It is even less desirable that this economic complex has the possibility of threatening the status of the US dollar.
In this case, the United States will definitely disrupt ASEAN's absorption of Myanmar.
From a historical perspective, Zhao Jiangchuan naturally knows the relationship between ASEAN and the subsequent economic crisis.
I also know that ASEAN will not give in to the pressure on the United States.
But he knows better what this means for international capital.
Even as a hooker, he has to admit one thing.
In this era, Soros's accumulation, if not for him, can already be called the first capital crocodile at that time.
This has been verified by the market since Soros led the Quantum Fund to attack the British pound.
Whether it is politics or economics, on the chessboard, there is no one who can leave Soros around.
If there is anyone else who can beat Soros at the moment, I am afraid it is only Robinson of Tiger Fund.
But Robinson, a feline, is used to hunting and waiting for opportunities, and he will never put himself in front of the stage.
Unlike Soros, what he is best at is driving the general trend.
Capital has reached a certain level, and it is no longer a zero-sum trading game.
It involves political, economic, military and other factors.
To say it was a war would be an understatement.
Therefore, financial warfare and military confrontation have similarities in many aspects.
Make decisions, build momentum, and seize the opportunity.
And what Soros is best at is to attack his heart first, and then his will.
Finally, carry the general trend for the final siege.
At the opportunity of ASEAN, it is undoubtedly the best time to stir up Southeast Asia.
With Soros's contemporary master-level vision, it is impossible not to see this.
…
Quantum Fund headquarters.
After analyzing that the economies of Southeast Asian countries have come to an end, Soros sees no more struggle.
His dual personality is completely suppressed by the cold side.
At this time, Soros no longer cherished in the beacon smoke of the dilapidated home.
In his eyes, which are completely incommensurate with his age, there are bursts of cold light.
Now he is the financial giant that makes European countries fear.
Zhao Jiangchuan's Jushi Capital can receive the news that ASEAN will absorb Myanmar to join, how can it not receive this news with the operation of Quantum Fund for many years.
Without any hesitation, Soros decided to stand on the side of the United States.
In the eyes of this financial giant, Southeast Asia's foundation is still too shallow, and trying to expand ASEAN's influence to restrict the United States is simply a way to die.
The moment ASEAN decided to expand its influence, it was doomed that the economies of Southeast Asian countries would collapse ahead of schedule.
December 6, 1996.
When Soros attended an economic summit in Europe, he slammed the Myanmar government for human rights abuses.
Soros said the dangers of drugs are well known to the world.
Every year, more than 400,000 people die from drug use, and more than 10 million families are broken up because of drugs.
But the Myanmar government has refused to send the big drug lord Khun Sa to a just trial.
This is unfair to drug victims, this is a violation of human rights, and this is an evil act against humanity.
Soros appealed not to invest in Myanmar, where the devil lives, let alone travel to Myanmar, which is helping this evil country deliver nutrients.
Soros believes that the Burmese military government refuses to hand over power to the people, all for their own selfish interests.
Every kyat is stained with the blood of drug addicts.
That's dirty, sinful, disgusting, money that shouldn't be in the world.
What a character Soros is.
He has a huge influence in Wall Street investment banks and even in the financial world all over the world.
Alan Greenspan's influence is largely due to his chairmanship of the Federal Reserve.
Soros can be compared to Allen in the financial world, but he has gained fame step by step.
That is the verification of blood and lessons again and again.
so…
Immediately after Soros' speech.
The Kyat suffered a huge sell-off in the circulation market, and the Kyat depreciated by 5% on the same day.
The name of a man, the shadow of a tree.
In the name of Soros, who killed him, just a few words devalued a country's currency by 5%.
Although a big factor here is the economic sanctions imposed on Myanmar by the United States and the European Union, the influence of Soros in the financial world is evident.
ASEAN will absorb Myanmar to join, Europe and the United States will jointly impose economic sanctions on Myanmar, and the kyat will depreciate sharply…
This series of news has attracted the attention of the whole world to Southeast Asia.
The purpose of the Quantum Fund was achieved, but Soros was also dumbfounded.
At a time when Southeast Asian countries are in the throes of the ASEAN issue, and when the world's political and economic attention is focused on Myanmar.
The Thai baht suddenly experienced a wide-ranging change.
December 7th.
Soros had just finished his speech in Europe, when the baht forward market suddenly saw a lot of selling.
In the spot market, there were also more than one billion US dollars of selling.
Three days later, the baht forward was smashed by funds from 1 to 23 to 1 to 26.
Soros has a feeling of ignorance, and Tiger Fund also has a feeling of ignorance. Those international capitals who have not had time to establish short positions have a feeling of ignorance.
The ones who vomited the most blood were Soros and Robinson.
They don't have enough baht yet, and they don't even have an open position on forward contracts.
But the special Thai baht was directly used by people.
The sudden change of the Thai baht made all the funds that were preparing to attack the Thai baht in chaos.
Everyone knows that Soros's criticism of Burma is not the drunkard's intention.
These funds are waiting for the Quantum Fund to be assembled to sound the horn of attack on the Thai baht.
But the Quantum Fund has not yet started, and they have not come and prepared, but the Thai baht has been killed.
In the early test, international capital has tried out the bottom line of the Bank of Thailand.
The price in the forward market 25, which is the maximum elastic position under the fixed exchange rate of the Thai baht.
Once this position is lost, it means that the Bank of Thailand is no longer able to control the overall situation.
However, now, the Thai baht is bombed to 1:26 by funds that have come out of nowhere.
This…
The baht is over.
This is the voice of all international capital.
Experienced foreign exchange traders had this idea almost instinctively when the baht fell to 26.
What to do in this situation?
If it is an ordinary investor who will not have an impact on the market price, this situation must be waiting for a rebound before going short.
But professional traders are different.
Professional traders have high market sensitivity and rich trading experience.
They know what it means to follow the trend.
The huge negative candle in the Thai baht forward market represents the formation of a bearish trend.
A negative line penetrated multiple positive lines and swept through all the moving averages below.
The technical breakdown also means that the Bank of Thailand has lost its defense line against the baht.
In this trend, professional traders of course choose to take the opportunity to short-sell to make huge profits.
then…
In the world's four major foreign exchange futures markets, open interest in Thai baht-related contracts began to increase wildly.
In the Thai spot market, there was a huge sell-off.
Thailand, Bangkok.
The phones of major commercial banks are ringing non-stop, and almost all of them are calls for short-term Thai baht lending.
When the operator hangs up one call, another call is received.
Borrow Thai Baht.
A week, a week.
Amounts ranging from several million to tens of millions of dollars.
In the long-term technological breakdown of the Thai baht, international capitals of all sizes enter the Thai baht market like a bunch of piranhas smelling blood, trying to devour enough flesh and blood in the collapse of the value of the Thai baht.
Singapore, financial trading center.
Rare doubts appeared in Robinson's tiger-like eyes.
He didn't know why the Thai baht was suddenly smashed.
Logically speaking, with the Bank of Thailand's foreign exchange reserves of more than 30 billion yuan, the Bank of Thailand should be able to withstand any attack for a while.
A hero with three gangs.
Ordinary people will still have three or two friends, not to mention Thailand, which has a good reputation.
Economically, Thailand and Singapore have always been on good terms.
In the Tiger Fund's earlier probing attack on the Thai baht, the Singapore Monetary Authority will help the Bank of Thailand to conduct a defensive counterattack against the Thai baht.
In those few times, although the Tiger Fund was not hurt, it still left tens of thousands of dollars.
But this time, the Thai baht was smashed down after only one day.
Could it be that the Bank of Thailand has always been a strong foreigner and a cadre before?
Or have our previous attempts almost depleted the Bank of Thailand's reserves?
Robinson was a little unsure.
Thailand's apparent foreign exchange reserves are 38 billion.
But this figure does not subtract the U.S. dollar assets and external liabilities held by the Bank of Thailand.
If you subtract these, no one knows how much foreign exchange reserves Thailand has.
Maybe three hundred, maybe two hundred...
After figuring this out, Robinson regretted it.
If he was the first to launch this attack on the Thai baht, he would have already reaped huge profits.
But Robinson is very human after all.
He can control the world's second largest hedge fund, and can let the world's largest hedge fund hand over the operation rights to him. Naturally, he has extraordinary willpower.
For the economies of Southeast Asian countries, Robinson is infinitely bearish.
The Thai baht is also a breakthrough he has long confirmed.
Now that there are funds to open the Thai baht's defense line, it is absolutely right to pursue the victory.
After making up his mind, Robinson's eyes returned to their former coldness.
Without hesitation, he picked up the phone and dialed the assistant's number.
"Robbie, borrow US$4 billion in Thai baht from major commercial banks with our treasury bonds... um~www.novelbuddy.com~ That's right, the sooner the better..."
…
Quantum Fund headquarters.
Soros already has dark eyes and the same doubts as Robinson before.
He couldn't figure out what kind of force could blow down the Thai baht in one day.
The Thai baht is a country behind it. If you add Thailand's allies, it can even be counted as a half country.
In terms of interests, Singapore will definitely help the Thai baht to do every defense as much as possible.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore is no fool either.
It can be guessed with the **** that once the Thai baht falls, the Thai baht currency crisis will spread to the entire Southeast Asian countries.
Given the lessons learned from the collapse of the pound, it is impossible for this group of people to miss this.
But what happened now?
Could it be that Thailand's foreign exchange reserves are less than we estimated? Thailand's previously announced reserves are smoke bombs?
Involuntarily, Soros had the same idea as Robinson.
This is the only possibility to explain why the Thai baht was smashed down without being able to hold on for a day under the sudden pressure of funds.
The transactions in the spot market could not be hidden from Soros's eyes.
There is no way to hide the transactions of more than one billion dollars a day.
In the eyes of people like Soros, he may not care about any news, but the transaction of real money can clearly prove one thing.
This is not a trap, at least, the probability of a trap is not very high.
That real gold and silver transaction is not the news of the mouth.
After confirming this, Soros had a mixed feeling of wanting to vomit blood.
Like Tiger Fund, Quantum Fund has yet to take a short position on the Thai baht.
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