Reincarnated as Nikolai II-Chapter 239: The Turning Point (5)

If there’s anything I’ve learned about ’history’ over decades of careful observation and study, it’s definitely that everything operates through intricate chains of cause and effect. More specifically, it’s about plausibility - the delicate thread that weaves through all historical events.

Plausibility. The measured assessment of certainty and possibility that something can happen, based on the complex interplay of various factors and conditions present at any given moment in time.

Let’s take the cause and effect of the Sarajevo incident as a particularly illuminating example of this principle.

In June 1914, Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated in Sarajevo, and for the following month, Europe held its breath, uncertain whether this spark would ignite the powder keg of war. The tension was palpable, yet the outcome remained unclear.

Because initially, no country had been explicitly preparing for war with a confirmed date - they were all watching, waiting, and carefully calculating their next moves in this dangerous diplomatic dance.

However, looking a bit deeper into the historical context, the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand was an incredibly natural and plausible event, almost inevitable given the circumstances of the time.

The simmering confrontation between imperialist powers had been building for decades, with each nation expanding its colonial reach and military might while eyeing its rivals with growing suspicion.

Nationalism, particularly the conflict between South Slavic nationalism and the Central Powers. The mushrooming nationalist organizations and their sponsors.

Archduke Ferdinand’s ethno-liberal tendencies. Continue your journey on novelbuddy

The annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The Austro-Hungarian Empire’s Balkan economic sanctions.

The Anglo-French rivalry and arms race.

At first glance, the Sarajevo incident itself seems like a case where the first assassination attempt failed, the second failed, and only the third succeeded through a combination of bad luck and stupid choices.

It means it was truly an event with low plausibility, where the Archduke died through extreme bad luck and led to the Great War.

However, if you add all the direct and indirect root causes that happened before?

"War would have broken out even if Archduke Ferdinand hadn’t died."

The historical flow manifests itself with the inexorable certainty of natural law, like gravity or thermodynamics. Just as water finds its level, nations find their conflicts.

History isn’t a novel with neat plot points and satisfying character arcs. When even a single visible event reveals such clear causality, imagine the vast web of invisible causes and effects working beneath the surface, like roots beneath a forest.

I trusted this plausibility in the way the Coolidge administration tried to resolve the Ruhr occupation.

Their stubborn adherence to the Monroe Doctrine and their choices in the original history revealed an America still wrestling with its role on the global stage, caught between isolation and intervention.

Looking at it logically, they should stand on our side.

They should have pointed fingers at France alongside us, worked to pacify German public sentiment, and helped prevent default while easing the crushing burden of hyperinflation. The economic devastation of Weimar Germany demanded a response from the world’s emerging superpower.

Because all of current Russia’s claims were exactly what the United States did in the original history.

The Dawes Plan that the United States should have originally implemented represented a pragmatic solution to Europe’s financial crisis. Its framework offered hope amid chaos.

Five victor nations gathering to discuss reducing reparations, and beyond that, independently issuing loans regardless of the League of Nations. A very benevolent and pro-German content where Wall Street internally helped with foreign loan issuance.

Using this plan as a stepping stone, Germany achieved remarkable success in national reconstruction during the Golden Twenties, a period of unprecedented growth and modernization.

From 1924 to 1929, their economic production increased by 50% in five years and accounted for 34% of world trade.

They grew even more than that moment in 1913 when Britain and France were containing them, surpassing their pre-war industrial output and establishing themselves once again as Europe’s economic powerhouse.

The United States that helped Germany to such an extent, even easing treaties and making investments, played a crucial role in this resurrection of German prosperity. American capital and expertise flowed into German industry, rebuilding what war had destroyed.

That country now stood on the completely opposite side.

History changed, but plausibility hasn’t been twisted.

The United States simply changed.

To contain the Russian Empire.

"This is enough to confirm what I wanted to know."

Since we can’t let Germany die like this, we must also give an answer.

"Count Fredericks. Please call Beren Volkov. If we drag this out sluggishly, that republic might really die."

"Understood."

Since what I wanted to know is finished anyway, there’s no harm in bowing once here.

They might think this Ruhr situation’s resolution determines Germany’s survival, but not to me.

For the Russian Empire, the Ruhr occupation was a clue revealing the Allied Powers and Axis Powers, enemies and allies.

==

The Big Four victors, French lapdog Belgium, and Italy who was anxious about being left out - six countries in total each sent two people to Berlin.

Berlin, Europe’s largest metropolis with a population of 4 million.

As soon as Beren, who once made headlines worldwide by raising independent negotiations in the State Duma, arrived in Berlin, a familiar sensation seemed to envelop his entire body.

Though it was clearly a city he had never experienced or visited before, somehow it felt familiar.

Though the architecture was different, the language heard on the streets was different, and even the meals served at his hotel table were different.

Memories from long ago slowly surface.

’...It’s like when I came to St. Petersburg from the Far East as a Duma deputy.’

Chaos. That strange sensation where the entire city is infected by chaos, emitting a gloomier air than smog.

"I heard both far-left and far-right suffer from assassinations, and it wasn’t a lie. Their gangs are positioned in every alley. The city’s public safety must not be good."

Seeing his secretary make similar comments, it seems he wasn’t being particularly sensitive.

"But it’s strange. No matter how bad public safety is, how can they roam in groups like that? The police just leave them alone?"

Updat𝓮d from freewēbnoveℓ.com.

"They can’t touch them. See how they’re all wearing the same colored clothes? It means they’re not just thugs but political gangsters."